Zhang Dongchen
recent years, China's stock market volatility and economic cycles are closely related. Many investors do not know how to guard against systemic risk and seize opportunities for systematic, is due to the economy and stock market run lack of understanding of the basic law. For example, in 6000 were still optimistic person, do not recognize the stock price bubble,UGG bailey button, but do not see the hidden risks of economic operations; in 1600 not economic rebound will soon face; recently in 3400 above the blind optimism of the people, it is not understanding the fundamentals of stock prices and a serious departure from the stage.
It is said that the macroeconomic and stock market is the . Obviously, all day forecasts compared to those of economic and stock market movements of people,Discount UGG boots, who often no desire to watch his wonderful, often trying to use watch his Jiao. Despite the very complex and uncertain factors, difficult to predict, but follow some basic rules, there are always factors that can determine, there are always some time to determine. For example, when its trajectory over due limit,UGG boots cheap, drift too far, contrary to the basic law, it is bound to reverse and return. So, really smart investors will not try to be smart, time-consuming to accurately predict the day or try to predict the economic and stock market movements, but only in very key point to grasp the forecast is relatively vague. friends (presumptuous).
William. Peter. Hamilton said, the stock market is the economic increase, the stock market index and the relevance of economic fundamentals is very obvious. However, investors need to guard against is that this characteristic signals are valid even though most of the time, but not always reliable. because the real price is the return on investment decision rate, rather than the GDP growth rate. If the GDP growth rate is It should be said, the Chinese government response to the crisis of a series of measures are sensible, context is very clear, not only take into account the immediate,UGG shoes, but also consider the long term. in resolving the crisis of confidence, expanding domestic demand and adjust the structure become a priority. accelerate the revitalization of Northeast China western development, the implementation of health care, pension and other social security system, inhibition of excess production capacity, are described as top priority.
from an investor perspective, the term is still the biggest problem facing lack of demand, which is the key to economic growth. Thus, If the investment unsustainable, consumption has not fully recovered, the next to turn into a difficult period. And when investors get the expected returns, investor confidence will be shaken again. so repeatedly, ; labor pains loss of investor confidence. the extent of the pain does not end in a one-time loss of light caused by the economy Bull They finally found themselves to be big, a lot of real estate developers and banks to make money. This is of course beneficial to the enterprises and banks, but only allows the average investor is more appalled. because it will not only lead to an unfair transfer of money and monetary policy is to quit sooner or later the bubble to the extreme, always broken.
in last year's fourth quarter results of listed companies in a landslide, people comfort themselves with the full-year earnings; the first half of this year, people used to console myself over-year. This is not deceiving you ? second quarter net profit rose 36% qoq, several major banks and the oil giant's net profit of ten listed companies accounted for 70% of all. This chain growth really sustainable? so much loss and profit of the listed companies, the outlook is not optimistic, there is no reason why the high premium?
expansion pressure is deja vu, Chinese architecture, CNR, Metallurgical Science and Industry and other large state-owned enterprises competing IPO, have been implemented or proposed issuance of the also nearly two hundred home, small board ?
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